AllConnect (Atlanta, GA)
Moving Home Services from Complexity to Efficiency
According to AllConnect Chairman and CEO Mark Miller, the company - the
largest aggregator of home services like phone, cable, satellite and
broadband - runs on a model that is "pretty simple, and maddeningly
complex." It applies a technology solution to a common problem shared
by more than 20 million consumers annually.
Problem: Information Overload
Relocating is one of life's most stressful events, made more so by the
time consumers must spend establishing service with cable, satellite,
phone and broadband providers - often a confusing and challenging
process. When they move, consumers must comb through myriad websites
or navigate complex service provider phone trees to make purchasing
decisions on home services, on which an average household spends about
$200 per month.
Solution: One-Stop Shop
AllConnect simplifies the process by providing consumers with the
best way to compare, select and order essential home services. The
company maintains relationships with more than 200 providers, whose
services are passed on to consumers via AllConnect's proprietary
technology platform. "No matter where you live, we can tell you
down to your local street address exactly what is happening, and
what is about to happen as Verizon brings in FiOS, or AT&T brings
in U-verse," said Miller.
Because most people first contact power companies before a move,
AllConnect's customers - which totaled 3 million last year - are
primarily referred to the service by the nation's leading energy
companies. Customers are not charged a fee for the AllConnect
service - it is covered by the service providers - which makes
it a win-win for the energy companies. "It's very simple: We
move the needle on customer satisfaction for them," says Miller.
"Customers are happier when [the energy companies] provide this
free service to them to help simplify their lives." The relationship
also benefits the referred home service providers, who can connect
with consumers before they make purchasing decisions. Because they
reach potential customers at the decision point, providers realize
high redemption and retention rates through the partnership.
Once referred to AllConnect, customers have the option of a voice
consultation with one of the company's 325 highly trained home
services specialists or using a self-serve option on AllConnect's
website. In addition to saving customers time, AllConnect offers a
cost-effective alternative channel, where customers can optimize
purchasing power within their budget parameters and save money.
Other applications include direct marketing capabilities, which
allow retailers such as home improvement stores to reach a target
audience that typically spends about $9,000 within 90 days of a
relocation event; and user-generated content, allowing customers
to share information on the best services in their area.
The technology behind AllConnect drives its competitive advantage.
VoIP provides flexibility for its call centers, and a complex back
office allows for real-time integration with service providers. "We
have a shop floor-like monitoring capability - if something is going
wrong, we know about it immediately,- said Neil Singer, Executive
Vice President and Chief Information Officer. This infrastructure
will allow the company to expand its serviceable market to 110
million households, to include those reexamining existing services.
"Our entire business is enabled by technology," said Miller.
Q&A with Mark Miller, Chairman and CEO, and Neil Singer, EVP and CIO, AllConnect
Q: Given all the changes that happen in that marketplace, now that
you capture the data for the customer, do you have an opportunity to go
back and tell the customer, hey, six months ago you had a great opportunity.
Now you have a different opportunity. Do you reinforce that?
A: The answer is, yes if they opt in for remarketing, if you will.
So what we may do to that consumer is to say, Mr. Singer, you're moving
in. Would you like for us to send you special offers from Lowe's when it
comes time for you to buy energy-efficient appliances? As we look at
marketing to that consumer, we look at advertising as a service. That
means special offers. And we also may offer a product called an annual
essential home services review, where we'll come back to you proactively
and tell you, hey, here are the changes that have occurred. Here are
special deals. How do you feel about your current service providers?
That's just the world we live in, going back to a point that was made
earlier. Our service providers would like to think that they'd capture
that consumer's attention and keep them for life, and if they do a great
job, they will. But we want to make sure that we're giving them unfettered
information. So the answer to that is, yes, but it's an opt-in for us, not
just a random call or anything like that.
Q: How do you maintain an agnostic relationship? You mentioned
earlier that you were funded by Verizon. What would be the incentive for you,
for them not to say, hey, you've got to direct business to Verizon versus
Comcast?
A: We understand where our bread is buttered, and - I stole this from
one of our early investors, Howard Schultz at Starbucks - the consumer
experience is our product, and so we understand that, and that is cultural
to the core. We try to level the playing field in terms of the bounties that
we get from different categories of service providers, but the determining
factor is choice for the consumer. We give them objective consultation, and
if you come to our contact center, and you ask our people, our top performers,
what is the most important thing that you do, I think two years ago they may
have said, "I work hard to build the trust of the consumer," or maybe "I
refuse to take no for an answer." But now what they would tell you is, they
listen. They listen, and then they match the right service to that consumer
based on their specific parameters.
Q: I'm curious if the "green" dimension is becoming a more significant
factor for the consumer base that you deal with.
A: The answer is, there's not that much focus on it. It's something
you have to proactively help them with. Even though they're coming to us
from our Duke Energy Connections, they may not have green energy at the
forefront, so we like our positioning in terms of being a proactive messenger
to help them save money, potentially, by adopting green energy. One of the
reasons consumers don't opt into green energy more frequently is it costs
them more to do it, and while they may be very good citizens and want to
do what's right for the planet, they can't afford the extra $5 a month.
That's playing out now, and ultimately what we're trying to do with these
three pilots that we're launching - and this is just emerging - is driving
adoption rates by giving them an ROI for that decision. Our power company
partners care very deeply about this, and so we care about it, and so it's
a natural evolution for us.
Bazaarvoice (Austin, TX)
Bazaarvoice brings the power of social commerce to the world's best brands
BazaarVoice CEO Brett Hurt says that in 90 days, the company "can guarantee clients that
they're going to see a good ROI and going to get a lot of content." With 170 clients,
including Wal-Mart, BazaarVoice has created a model where customer-generated content
trumps marketing-generated content and serves as the driver of multiple channels of
marketing.
Problem: You Can't Manage What You Don't Measure
In a world of product proliferation, how do consumers make the most informed
decisions - and how do companies stay on top of the best ways to serve and market
to their customers?
Online retailers must learn to harness an enormous breadth of new technology
platforms that engage consumers, and make them work to their competitive advantage
- with a measurable ROI.
Solution: ASP-based Social Commerce
BazaarVoice sits at the intersection of social media and sales generation,
providing a social commerce platform that inherently relies on customer engagement
to generate content in the form of ratings, reviews, stories and customer Q&As.
This content, which BazaarVoice fully manages for its clients, is then used on
customer websites, advertisements, in-store signage, circulars and even product
"collars" to help consumers make more informed and rewarding purchasing decisions.
Companies ultimately benefit through increased sales and customer satisfaction
levels.
According to Hurt, "Customers talk to each other every day about the movies they
love, the books they love, the products they love, and there have been many ways
to try to get at that information, including focus groups. But what you're seeing
online is a reflection of word of mouth, in a digitally archived format, which is
incredibly powerful - it's testimonial-grade content without the taint of a
testimonial."
Word of mouth isn't always flattering, but BazaarVoice has documented that even
negative reviews drive higher in-session conversions than positive reviews because
the consumer appreciates candor. Companies with high product return rates often
find, after deploying BazaarVoice applications, that there is a direct correlation
to low consumer ratings.
In addition to the technology infrastructure and expertise that encourages and
digitally archives customer feedback, BazaarVoice also provides the moderation.
Meta-tags are applied to the content to increase search engine optimization scores.
Content is also monitored according the rules of engagement which prohibits fraudulent
activity. This is accomplished primarily through a workforce of stay-at-home mothers
- but what they miss in monitoring, brand advocates will catch.
According to Hurt, "The reason we've grown so fast is because this works. PETCO is
a great example; they launched a top-rated products path on their website where you
can get to the top-rated dog leash that's made out of nylon. The path didn't exist
before and those that take it have conversion rates 50% higher than normal and spend
over 60% more per order."
Named Vendor of the Year by PETCO; Marketing Innovator of 2006 by ClickZ, the
largest online marketing community; and one of the top 100 start-ups in North
America by Red Herring, BazaarVoice is, according to Hurt, on a tear. "In every
category where word of mouth plays a role, that's a category where you'll see us
- either today or very quickly," he says.
Q&A with Brett Hurt, CEO, BazaarVoice
Q: Clearly retailers like Wal-Mart or Amazon have some interest in having completely
objective reviews. But when it's your own product or your own service, what do you
do when the "one-stars" start rolling in?
A: We actually know that negative reviews drive a higher in-session conversion than positive
reviews, because they hit people so hard to say, "Wow, OK. I now trust the positive content on this
site." The chances of you leaving at that point are pretty unlikely. So go to Bank of America and look
at their Bill Pay reviews. You can sort by most negative; you can sort by most positive. We also have
the notion of featured reviews, which always appear at the top, and we hand-select those when we're
reviewing this content. But it is very important to be transparent, and again, you have nothing to
lose, because this content's going to be out there anyway. The content is going to exist, and the
opportunity is to have it be much more voluminous in your site.
If you have serious issues with something, then you should expect some negative reviews.
If a company is in a death spiral, we're probably not their best choice. But if they're a growing,
healthy company, they have a lot of naturally occurring, positive word of mouth, and we're going
to be a reflection of that.
Take Geico - they've got well over 2,000 reviews now, in a few weeks, with no promotion to get
people to write it, and they get a 4.5 out of 5. Now, you know, you could say as a marketer, it
should always be a 5 out of 5. But we don't live in that world, and everybody knows it, and it's
OK. It's so powerful for Geico now, as compared to their competitors, because their competitors
don't offer this. So if you are the person that shops that way for something, and you've ended
up on a Geico page because of a search engine result that drove you to that content, your chance
of converting at that point is really, really high, because you're in an environment now when you
know that they're transparent, and you can trust them.
Q: What's your revenue model, pricing, packaging? Also, what about relevance? What about guerilla
marking people who come onto the site, and they're really promoting something else, or competitors
that come in and try trash you? How do you handle that?
A: The rules are posted upfront on what content we'll post and what won't. And we moderate based
on those rules, which are client-configured. So when we do an engagement with a client, they say,
"This is the type of content I'll allow, this is what I want.- Again, it can't be a rule that says,
"Any one or two star, don't show it," because that's going to blow up in their face, and we don't
want to be associated with that, and I wouldn't recommend that at all. We do catch fraudulent
reviews all the time. It's a very small problem. It gets press when it is a problem, like the
hoteliers have been kind of hammered on this recently. But it's less than .1% of all review volume.
Because again, the brand advocates will overwhelm them. And the people that come in, where we do
miss it that it's fraudulent, you'll actually see [other customers] respond to them, either if
they're trying to be too negative or too positive. Like the 5-star reviews in our system, a lot
of times they'll say, here's all the benefits, but I really wish it did x, y z; you're never
going to see manufacturer write a review of their product and say, I wish it would do x, y or z.
As far as the pricing model, we are an ASP, we sign typically one- to three-year contracts with
clients, and it's volume-based and product-based, so based on the amount of volume that we expect,
and again, it is pretty formulaic at this point, we know how much volume we'll get for our business
based on the number of metrics we get for them. And then the products they buy. So if they just
start out with reviews that would be at one price - typical pricing for large brands is about
$20-50,000 a month - because we know that they'll get content and a lot of traffic. And we're
actually hosting this content on their sites as well, so we're incurring all the costs for that.
Q: You started your dialogue talking about dish soap. I was just curious as to whether that
was a consortium of companies, or was it a specific company?
A: It was Procter and Gamble, dawn-dish.com, the site for Dawn dish soap. It's really interesting
that you asked me about that, because Dawn now is rolling out a campaign in stores where around
the collars of the dish soap are going to be summaries of the reviews, and, "Please go to
dawn-dish.com to read and write reviews." And it's got phenomenal ratings, as you would expect,
as that's been a very successful product. We also have five other Procter and Gamble brands that
we're rolling out really aggressively across their category right now, they spend $8.4 billion
on advertising a year, and this is a very high-leverage activity for them that could get
integrated for that.
HighRoads (Woburn, MA)
Driving Better HR Results
HighRoads President and COO Mike Byers recalls that one of the company's
Fortune 100 clients once said, "Finance has data; human resources has
excuses." Companies today are devoting unnecessary capital to inefficient
HR processes without any kind of return on that investment. HighRoads offers
a new way to manage these HR programs and suppliers, improving the employee
experience while dramatically reducing costs for large, complex organizations.
Problem: Complex Functions, Simplistic Technologies
In large companies, finance and manufacturing divisions have ERP systems.
Marketing and sales have CRM. But human resources professionals, who are
responsible for dozens of health and welfare programs (medical, dental,
vision, disease management) for as many as a half a million active and
retired employees, continue to rely on email, telephone and spreadsheets
to get their jobs done.
Further, with globalization, M&A activity and union negotiations, these
companies' programs are growing increasingly complex, yet the technology
remains static - and the processes inefficient. Data is disaggregated,
and institutional knowledge leaves with HR professionals when they resign
or retire. As a result, Byers says, these organizations frequently pay
third-party consultants top dollar to run administrative systems, rather
than provide strategic counsel.
Solution: Point. Click. Save.
HighRoads offers a technology-enabled service that centralizes this
disparate HR content into a single managed repository to automate the
entire HR supplier management process. This centralization helps
organizations achieve efficiencies, realize significant savings and,
for the first time, easily analyze the impacts of shifts in HR
strategies and providers.
Specifically, HighRoads' packaged solutions address HR processes including:
- Supplier management - tracks performance guarantees, helping clients evaluate suppliers
- Contract management - notifies clients when one of hundreds of HR contracts is up for renewal
- Third-party data integration - manages and aggregates client data for open enrollment
- Global data management - rolls up global data to ensure compliance with country requirements
- Procurement management - automates the RFP and renewal process
- SPD management - provides automated legal review and updates for mandatory documents
- Union negotiations management - reflects program changes as result of union negotiations
- Merger & acquisition management -- increases responsiveness following corporate divestitures
According to Byers, HighRoads does not encourage its clients to self-serve.
"Human resources professionals do not have the time to learn a new enterprise
system," he says. "We actually do the work for them." The company is working
on a next-phase benchmarking solution that will allow companies to
automatically, confidentially compare their HR programs with industry peers.
Byers says that about 20 percent of the FORTUNE 500 uses one or all of
HighRoads' solutions, realizing significant efficiencies and savings. He
points to one large client for which those savings are paying dividends.
"The client established a tobacco cessation program with some of the dollars
saved by using HighRoads," he says. "Their objective now is to save about $1
billion in [smoking-related] claims costs over the next six years, and we're
proud to be part of that story."
Q&A with Mike Byers, President and COO, HighRoads
Q: The information you're dealing with is very confidential. What kind of
controls are you putting in?
A: We are HIPAA compliant. We've gone all through the security regulations.
We're not dealing with the claims data, though.
Q: Can you talk about the competitive landscape? As a company with a few
hundred employees, we tend to get a lot of new HR platforms, and it sounds
like you've got something very distinctive here.
A: We frequently get lumped in with the human capital management category
-- the Taleos, Connexes, Authorias of the world. We don't compete with them
at all. We compete with Mercer, Towers Perrin, and Hewitt. We are typically
a third of the cost, and we don't have a technology-based competitor.
Q: I'm curious how you came to the conclusion that tools like MTorus and
Ariba were not suitable for HR data.
A: Actually, the clients have told us that. I think those tools have been
really specific for the procurement team. The complexity of an RFP and the
way it gets scored for a medical plan design is so different than ordering
generic parts.
Q: Do you have a mid-market solution?
A: We don't have a mid-market solution or a lower end. The smallest two
clients we have are Monster.com and ABB with 5,000 lives. That end of the
market we tend to find the traditional broker such as Marsh.
iSqFt (Cincinnati, OH)
Where Contractors Do Business
After reading The Company of the Future by Frances Cairncross, Dave Conway, CEO of iSqFt,
was convinced he was on to something. Having grown up in the building products manufacturing
industry, he figured if Federal Express made millions of dollars shipping blueprints around
the country, "there might be an opportunity if you can get some technology adoption." From
100 projects per month to over 10,000 now, iSqFt is changing the industry, "one contractor
at a time."
Problem: The Plan Is in the Mail
If there was ever an industry slow to adopt technology, construction management was it.
Before iSqFt, contractors sourced projects by going to plan rooms organized by local
trade associations and selecting blueprints literally hanging on racks on the walls.
From there, the real pain set in-the bidding process. General contractors mailed
blueprints to subcontractors, not ever knowing if they were going to respond with
a bid. If the architect made a change to the plan, every participant in the project
had to then be alerted. For a $40 million new school construction project, that
could mean contacting as many as 400 subcontractors to request that they amend
their project bids accordingly.
Solution: An Innovative Foundation
iSqFt set out to minimize the inefficiencies that exist in the estimating and
bidding phase of the construction project life cycle. It first created a web-based
application, which was met with interest from local subcontractors. Still, they
said, "There is no way you will get a fat-fingered subcontractor to come online
and use technology." But iSqFt persisted, partnering with a Georgia-based company
that had determined a way to web-enable blueprints to build a subscription-based
business model. Eventually, the power of the technology won over the resistant
contractors, and iSqFt won the endorsement of the 100-chapter Associated General
Contractors of America.
The application facilitates every aspect of the preconstruction process - from
helping companies find work to streamlining bidding - bringing everyone together
in one more effective, cost-efficient place. The Private Construction Office lets
general contractors distribute project plans, specs, addenda and other documents
to subcontractors and suppliers - securely and efficiently. With the ability to
designate access to each document available in their Construction Office, contractors
assume total control over the entire preconstruction process. The Internet Plan Room®
provides subcontractors, suppliers, and professional estimators with around-the-clock
access to project information, plans, specs and addenda for publicly bid construction
projects. Software tools are included to view and print plans, specs and addenda, as
well as conduct on-screen takeoffs (surveys of labor and materials required to complete
a project). From a new business development standpoint, material suppliers also benefit
from the ability to search an entire database of specifications for upcoming projects.
"This may sound odd to you, but we're not ever upset when one of our customers leaves
and goes to another company, because the first or second call he makes is to us," says
Conway. "He will say, 'I can't do this without you guys.'"
Q&A with Dave Conway, President and CEO, iSqFt
Q: You mentioned that you're able to download the actual source file, are you're able
to do take-offs on a regular blueprint?
A: The only take-off that we enable is on the online version of the blueprint. We
can extract data out of the source file, but we have to have the permission from the
architect to do that.
Q: Do you see that as an opportunity?
A: Yes - I think the market's kind of moving in parallel. The more sophisticated
owners - there's a group actually, based in Cincinnati, called CURT, Construction
Users Round Table, 50 of the largest construction buyers in the world. And they're
driving to really get the industry to adopt technology at a more rapid pace, and
there's a product out there that uses 3-D and 4-D parametric technology that enables
you to extract data out of that file and make it potentially available to subcontractors.
The challenge, of course, is that there's a very disparate kind of level of sophistication.
If you've got a graduate degreed mechanical contractor who's willing to go into a 4-D
parametric file and use conflict resolution software to understand where the duct work
crosses the electrical, there are some guys out there that are interested and willing
and able to do that, and there's software out there that will do that for you. But if
you think of the painter, he's not going to go into a sophisticated file and figure out
how much wall area there is. So either companies like ours will translate that file,
take that data, make it available in a format that the painter is willing to use, and
comfortable in using, that's part of what will happen in the more sophisticated end of
the market. The other part is that it's still going to end up on paper, and we're still
going to end up scanning, and it will continue the way we're doing it.
We've thought long and hard about it, and I don't know. The only way that it would be
feasible is for us to offshore the takeoff, and we haven't spent enough time to really
understand whether or not we can do that. Plumbing is an example where you need fixture
count. The image on a blueprint of a fixture is pretty simple. I think that that would
be valuable to a building product manufacturer supplier, and they would price it out,
and then we would post that price list and know who to post it to. So yes, I think that's
where it's all headed, and how it gets there is going to be a function of whether or not
we can generate enough cash to continue to invest.
TopCoder (Glastonbury, CT)
Bringing Major League Competition to Software Development
TopCoder's CEO Jack Hughes admits that applying the community aspects of
social networking to the professional world makes it "a pretty weird company."
But TopCoder's business model, providing customer software applications and
component catalogs to FORTUNE 100 companies through virtual competition, is
keeping the 135,000 leading developers it counts as members coming back.
Problem: Administration Trumps Innovation
Most large companies spend the bulk of their IT budgets on maintaining
existing systems, at the expense of innovation. Sufficient ROI eludes
these organizations as they focus on navigating the complexities of
developing software while managing large IT organizations. According
to Hughes, "It's simply the cost of time. If [software development]
is going to take this long to do and if it's going to cost this much,
it's not worth it."
Solution: Piecing it Together
TopCoder addresses this challenge by managing competition among a
community of professional software developers representing every
facet of software development, from architecture to coding. Hughes
defines this community as "a diverse group of individuals, with
an affinity in an area of interest. It's not as simple as saying
that you can do a virtual work community, a professional network,
in the form of a marketplace that looks like eBay. You very much
need some set of structures, if you're going to manage a community,
to get to some output."
TopCoder begins by looking for an application architecture outcome
that can be worked on by a diverse group of programmers. The problem
is broken down like a puzzle, in which components are built by
individuals and assembly is collaborative. "This is probably the
primary differentiator between our process and what others would
do, from the standpoint that we're trying to get to an extremely
granular level," says Hughes. "We're trying to get these puzzle
pieces into a format and a package where we're talking about a de
minimus cost profile -- thousands of dollars or sub-thousand
dollars -- and timeframes that can be in hours. So we can go
and build [software architecture], through a community, in some
cases within weeks, in some cases days, and in some cases hours."
Competitions are held in both "Single Round Matches" held online
once per week and "Tournaments" held both on-location and online
twice per year. Once built by TopCoder's community, a solution is
then brought back to the customer's environment, where it is
deployed as software, a service or a set of services, or as an
installed application.
"If I were to ask your children or grandchildren what they would
like to be in the future, their answer would be pro athlete," says
Hughes. "But their odds of making it are infinitesimal. TopCoder
is trying to make the idea of software development very exciting
and attractive, because if this country - and this world - is
going to move forward, it's going to take people who find as much
satisfaction doing that as trying to become the next Tom Brady."
He says that those who pursue the field stand to gain; one TopCoder
programmer is on pace to earn a half a million dollars next year.
"This isn't a cheap labor story by any stretch of the imagination --
this is a productivity and efficiency story."
Q&A with Jack Hughes, CEO, TopCoder
Q: How are you insuring that all of these components that are being built
globally are coming together into a single system?
A: Because we put that system together. So we break the system down into
pieces. We make sure those pieces have the right interfaces exposed, to be able
to talk to each other. That's an oversimplification, but that's basically how the
process works.
Q: So when someone employs you with a large or a medium sized project, do
you break it down? Do you give the customer the tool to break it down? How does
that process work?
A: Right now, it's every end of that spectrum, from us doing the entire
project, to the customer doing all of that project. We would prefer that the
customer do that work, that the customer have the domain experience in-house,
the project management experience in-house, the architecture in-house, although
architecture, even for us, is going more and more out to our community. We would
prefer the client drive it, and look at Top Coder as a platform for two things:
a large set of assets - our component catalogs, over 1,000 components, grows
very rapidly; and access to a large virtual global development community.
Q: How do you foster trust amongst the members of your virtual community?
A: Trust is probably the most critical element of what we do. We have
to be extremely upfront about what we're doing and why we're doing it. When we
first started, TopCoder was a series of competitions that didn't have a necessary
commercial outcome, but we were very clear to members, in the very beginning, to
say this is a commercial endeavor. We're also very clear about [intellectual
property]. If we pay you for your IP, we're going to take it. If we don't pay
you for it, we're not.
Q: What does the profile of your customer base look like, in size as well
as industry?
A: It's cross-industry right now. It's probably about 30 companies that
we're actively engaged with. They are primarily large, Fortune 1000 companies.
It's ESPN, Constellation Energy, Fidelity on a test basis. There's other financial
services firms, there's hedge funds in there. There's manufacturing companies.
We're fairly cross industry and we'll look to stay cross industry.
Q: You mentioned innovation. To what degree does a vigorous engineering
approach either hinder or foster innovation?
A: Innovation doesn't work without quality. A high quality product takes
rigor. A big part of innovation, and a big difference between say the manufacturing
industry and the software industry, is that if you look at the price of a car today,
it's much higher quality, it has many more features, and it is almost exactly the
same price in real dollars as it was in 1960. That's innovation. Software today
looks like much more complexity and an exponentially growing cost base, against
every point of complexity that happens. So, the software model today, for even the
largest companies is, I would argue, unsustainable. So there will be different models
that come along, to change how software is done.
Keynote: Does IT Matter?
Professor Andrew McAfee,
Harvard Business School
Professor Andrew McAfee says the power of technology is still far from a universally
accepted idea. As "the crispest possible declaration" of the pessimism he encounters,
he refers to a 2003 Harvard Business Review article titled "IT Doesn't Matter," which
argued that while technology increases productivity, it does not provide competitive
advantage - and senior managers should spend little time looking at it.
From History to Hypothesis
To "beat back that brushfire of skepticism," McAfee and colleagues at Harvard and MIT
researched the correlation of company performance and IT investment at U.S. companies
from the 1960s to today. In describing his research, McAfee first describes the effects
on competition when general-purpose technologies were introduced to our economy at
various points. He says the availability of new power sources for manufacturing -
from steam power to the electric engine - is analogous to the advent of technology,
citing Henry Ford's introduction of the assembly line as the "innovative leap" that
helped Ford achieve market dominance. McAfee says that whenever a new general purpose
technology comes along, we enter a period of "fairly intense, competitive change-and
often a brand new generation of leaders emerges."
To test whether today's competition is having that impact, McAfee and his colleagues
first turned to an unlikely proving ground: Ted Williams' .400 batting average. They
examined the research of another Harvard professor, Steven J. Gould, on why there hasn't
been another .400 hitter since Williams. Gould found that while there has been little
variation in batting averages over the last century, the spread, or standard deviation,
around that average tells a different story. In a game like baseball, where rules are
sustained over a long period of time, performance improves but variation decreases. The
game is played at a higher level than it used to be, so everyone converges around the
average - there are fewer outliers.
McAfee and his team hypothesized that in the game of business, if technology has
changed the rules such that the old rules no longer apply, the opposite phenomenon
would occur - we would see increased spread between the best- and worst-performing
companies.
Market Test
To test the theory, they collected data points including gross profit margin, epitome
margin and market cap from every U.S. publicly traded company from 1960 on. For those
companies in industries that spend a lot of money on technology, McAfee expected to
see winners increasingly separated from losers - thus proving that IT matters in
competitive battles. The findings confirmed his suspicions.
"You've got one flat line where industries that don't spend a lot [on IT] are not
seeing much change over time, but in industries that are injecting IT into themselves,
the graph starts to diverge and you see increasing performance spread," says McAfee.
"The winner, the best and the worst, do not look very similar to each other."
What's more, McAfee believes we might be in an era of "permanently higher turbulence,
permanently nastier competition," where innovation and technology can be propagated
much more quickly than ever before. If this holds true, he suggests a few investment
strategies for success in this environment.
Q&A with Professor Andrew McAfee, Harvard University
Q: What surprised you the most with the results of all of your data?
A: When you do this kind of work, you grab some initial data and you do
some quick back of the envelope analyses to see if the finding holds up. When we
did that, we honestly -- I thought our computer was broken for a while because what
we see on this, came out from our results so strongly, and we looked at it and we
said, "OK this can't possibly be right," so we went back and we tried to be more
rigorous about our data and to bang on it all of these different ways, and for
each of these different outcomes that we're interested in, this performance spread,
the turbulence and the concentration, just the raw magnitude of the result continues
to be surprising to us. What's even more surprising is that all three of these
things seem to be happening at about that same time. So if we use the mid-1990s
period as a "before-and-after" differentiator, it's just crystal clear. And because
we can so clearly tell the story that the technology world changed as of the mid-90s,
that tells us that we are onto the right track with this story.
Q: Do the numbers indicate that if you spend two times as much you get four
times the value?
A: We haven't done that work yet for one very simple reason. The problem
is that there are no great data sources about IT spending at the level of the company.
We got very fortunate because the U.S. government tracks, very consistently, IT stocks
and flows at the industry level, year after year. Here is my hypothesis walking in to
that analysis. Let's assume a magical data set existed and we could do exactly what you
suggest. My intuition tells me that we would find a positive correlation between
information technology spending and a business goodness defined as better revenue
share, better market share, all these things that we might care about. A weak positive
correlation. The reason I say it's weak though is that every time I look at any IT data,
the thing that strikes me is never the mean, but it's the variance around that mean.
So companies can spend equal amounts of money and get hugely different returns to that
kind of spending.
Q: What's your top recommendation or your top couple of recommendations as you
speak to folks - just be smarter about where you're spending all the money?
A: My first recommendation is if your senior leadership of the company is not
focused on the possibilities that technology brings to them, they had better get there.
Because I have yet to see a company where the top leaders didn't kind of, at least
appreciate technology if not embrace it. So the first thing I say is, "Look, get on
board." The second one is to start thinking about enterprise-level initiatives that
you can do with technology. Every time someone goes to shop at Walmart.com, they see
user reviews now. It doesn't only happen five percent of the time. I try to make that
analogy to the other processes the company executes and say, "Look, if you believe that
technology can bring you better processes and business models, one of the things that
you need to do is apply those as widely as is appropriate inside the company." When I
look at most IT infrastructures and the processes that they support, they're incredibly
fragmented -- it's business unit by business unit, the geographies are all different,
and there's this complete patchwork of technologies and then business processes on top
of that. I say, look, if you have a better mousetrap, it's incumbent on you to spread
that around as widely as possible inside the firm. As far as we can tell, technology
does not stifle innovation, and does not reduce your scope for doing interesting things.
It actually increases your scope for doing interesting things.